maandag 11 juli 2011

'Four degrees and beyond': on the threshold...


"Don't blow it... good planets are hard to find!"




De wereldwijde CO² en andere broeikas gassen uitstoot en herkomst (en de link waar ik 'm vond)


There is now little to no chance of maintaining the rise in global mean surface temperature at below 2°C, despite repeated high-level statements to the contrary. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards (e.g. [20,21]), sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between dangerous and extremely dangerous climate change. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full

... model projections from the IPCC, (our) best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ‘likely range’.  http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/67.full

The big picture and potential ramifications is painted at : http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934.toc (a few of the abstracts cannot be freely accessed here; google the title and get the PDF's elsewhere free)

A "comforting" thought: the "same" people that brought us here and gave us NUCLEAR POWER plants are now planning (experimenting?) GEO-ENGINEERING! Think we should trust them, again?

What's next: we push earth into a wider orbit around the sun? :-(

vrijdag 8 juli 2011

"The Ostrich Generation": Global Warming and a bottom-up approach.

When planning for a year, plant corn. When planning for a decade, plant trees. When planning for life, educate people - Chinese Proverbs"

Even while most of us largely ignore the Global Warming Issues we face, time to act is running out, fast! Science on cause(s) and effect(s) is divided: roughly 2% of all scientists disagree – based on unscientific arguments, research done by oil-companies etc – with the 98% of the scientific community worldwide, who are trying to tell us we *do* have a serious problem.

The longer we wait & ignore this matter, the more serious it will become… somewhat like a malignant tumour. Ignore that for any length of time and you pay for that mistake the ultimate price! Yet we are bombarded with a daily deluge of adverts prodding us to consume *more*, not less! Sooner or later things will be turned around, if not by us, then by nature’s wrath.

Are we really so egotistical that we can accept our children or grandchildren will face a catastrophic collapse of world economy, and world population? Think of the Mayan culture… on a worldwide scale.

Expecting your government to come out & tell you (order you, if we wait much longer) that we have to take back a few steps is hardly realistic: we do not act of our own accord, so politicians bringing you that message will not have long, distinguished careers. So they meet in lovely places like Cancun, Kyoto, Copenhagen and utter hollow phrases and call them accords. And things remain as they were before; like Lemmings we are running towards the cliff, towards a mass extinction.

To keep this consumerism going and staying in “power” (for what that’s worth) politicians will lie and cheat, build Nuclear Power stations, look the other way when risks & defects are found. They will happily tell you there is an abundance of oil to be found just to the north of the US border, in the Canadian Tar Sands. They will *not* tell you of the ecological impact oil production from Tar Sands will have!

Someone remarked: “how can we tell the Brazilian People not to slash & burn their Amazonian Rain Forrest if we start oil production from the Tar Sands?” How very true! And it was a catalyst for a train of thoughts, none really spectacular or earth shattering, on one change that might help turning around our behaviour just a little bit.

We have to make the children aware of the problems we face, and it should be in the school curriculum, just like geography and history are today! In 10, 15 years time there will be a major change in people’s behaviour, not merely the kid’s behaviour but – faced by tough questions – also in us, the “ostrich generation”.

That this approach can, nay will work was maybe best illustrated by none other than the big oil and coal lobby in the USA: until the spring of 2011 they funded a curriculum in schools in a number of states in the USA, promoting the use of coal and oil.. until it became public knowledge! If they put millions into it you can safely bet it must have been worth their while... and d*mn effective! :-(